Click states on this interactive map to create your own 2024 election forecast. 8, 2022 leader Nov. Download. Democrats +2. But republican results seem to have more variance. Polling shows that so far, according to 538's average,. Races called correctly. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. Republicans (R) +2. Download. 1,500 LV. Initial 2024 Ballot Donald Trump 40% Joe Biden 47% Undecided 12% Difference -7 n = 789 Trump Hurts Down-Ballot Republicans After presenting survey respondents with a Trump-Biden rematch, they were asked how they would vote for Congress. 3 percentage points (48. 11-13. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. 68%. 0 percent to 42. 95% OF POLLS PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. For example, here are the 2020 results. By Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux and Meredith Conroy. The current 2024 presidential election ratings from Louis Jacobson for U. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. S. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Download the data. The method of calculating the generic ballot that we use on our generic ballot interactive, which currently shows Democrats ahead by 10. 2024 Elections; Top Stories. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. 13 to Sept. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. S. +1. The Republican Party currently controls the U. Nov. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Download. 2 percent in an average of all. Download. Design and. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Once upon a time, people really did vote for person over party. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. Download. Download the data. The Deluxe version of our model simulates the election 40,000 times to see which party wins the House most often. 2 All six of those polling firms have shown a shift toward Democrats. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. 6 percent). 2020. Poll type. Download the data. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. ' 2022 Congressional elections, generic ballot polling provides a look at the overall political environment. RCP Poll Average. The graph below shows how the FiveThirtyEight generic-ballot polling average 2 shifted in the last 90 days of the 2006, 2010, 2014 and 2018 midterms. and the generic ballot test, in particular. 2% Republican 44. Download. 49. Few House seats look more appealing for Democrats to flip than Arizona's 1st District in 2024. There is no shortage of people running for president in 2024. The data point for 2014 reflects this year’s generic congressional ballot, a poll-based projection of the national House vote. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. 6 . Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. “Two weeks out from the midterms, evidence points to a re-emerging red wave that could sweep in GOP control of both chambers,” Axios (. Download the data. The Immigration Hub is a partisan sponsor for the Democratic Party. Download the data. Republicans (R) July October 2018 April July October 36 38 40. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. 48. The latest survey marks a decline over the past month from Democrats’ high point (49%), and a boost for the GOP from its 44% low. 57. News. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. 9 points on the actual house popular vote in Nov, a 4. The last presidential election featured one of the more accurate sets of early polls for this point in the cycle: Hillary Clinton led Donald Trump 46. Also known as Harris Interactive, Harris Poll or HarrisX. The Second GOP Debate Could Be Smaller, With Or Without Trump Sep 14, 2023; 2024 Election. Jun. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. 45. Murray. 7. On Wednesday morning, another generic ballot poll, from Selzer & Co. On Tuesday morning, a poll came out from ABC News and The Washington Post showing Democrats ahead by 14 percentage points on the generic congressional ballot. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. S. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. It will take 270 electoral votes to win the 2024 presidential election. 2022 Generic Congressional Vote. Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Yes, as you might recall, generic-ballot polls. RealClearPolitics - 2024 Generic Congressional Vote. Democracy Corps is a partisan sponsor for the Democratic Party. Pollsters that did not release any horse-race polls within three weeks of an election since 1998 do not have a grade and are treated as a C+ by the grade filter. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Download the data. 804 A. CNN: D 51%, R 42% (D+9) Democrats won a net of 40 seats. All 2018 Generic Congressional Vote Polling Data. The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight. 3-5. Download. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Indicates a polling average for this poll type. 2024 Republican Debates. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Democrats (D) +6. 1 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100% Trump DeSantis Haley Ramaswamy Nov. 3 points, according to. 2024 election guide: Presidential candidates, polls, primaries and caucuses, voter information and results for November 5, 2024 In 2018, the prediction was right on target. 5Download the data. Friday’s poll showed the generic Republican candidate is up seven points, with 48 percent of the likely U. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. Download. Download the data. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. 45. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. 6 attack on the Capitol off the ballot in 2024. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. 59. The latest with redistricting. 2000. The 538 running average of the generic ballot puts Democrats at 46% to Republicans 45%. 45. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. The last row shows that over the ten elections, Democrats led in the generic ballot on average by 3. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Democrats managed to remain ahead of Republicans until November, when the GOP took over the lead in 538’s average of generic congressional ballot polls. But most of them are. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Download. Download the data. Download. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Therefore, we also make our data available for download so you can play with. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. Between the House (435 races), Senate (35) and gubernatorial races (36), we issued forecasts in a total of 506 elections. Louisiana Governor - Open Primary WAFB-TV/Mason-Dixon Landry 40, Wilson 24, Waguespack 9, Lundy 4, Schroeder 3, Hewitt 2, Nelson Landry +16 Louisiana Governor Runoff Election - Landry vs. Ballotpedia includes comprehensive election information for the largest 100 cities by population, as well as all state legislative, statewide, and congressional races across the nation. And the generic ballot. 6 percent). The Immigration Hub is a partisan sponsor for the Democratic Party. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Elliott Morris. Download. Chris Sununu (R) , Larry Hogan (R) , Mike Pompeo (R) By Martín González Gómez and Maggie Astor. According to the RealClearPolitics average, the shift began a month earlier. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. With one week to go until election day, Split Ticket is excited to release its second to last House Temperature Check. Download. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Statistical model by G. 47%. Biden up 7 points over Trump in 2024 popular vote: poll. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Analysis of the FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos tracking poll suggests that following the Dobbs decision, a segment of Biden’s 2020 base who were previously uninvested in the midterms now say they are likely to vote for a Democratic candidate. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Download. Download the data. And journalists noticed. 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination. Senate, U. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. By Ashley Wu and Molly Cook Escobar. +5. Affiliated with AAPOR/Roper. Democrats. 5. Specifically, we looked at what would happen if you made a forecast based solely on the partisan lean of a state or district, plus generic-ballot results. 47%. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. 3. Since May 2022, Republicans have lost a slight edge on the generic ballot. The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight. In some ways, splits on all these indicators probably shouldn’t be a surprise. Download. 7-10. Filter by poll type or state. On Election Day the red wave crashed ashore, with the GOP recording. Incumbent President Joe Biden, a member of the Democratic Party, is running for re-election. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. Download the data. 22 to Nov. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Biden and Trump are also virtually tied — Trump at 45. 538 uses statistical analysis — hard numbers — to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, economics, and American society. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Former President Donald J. ABCNews. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot, 3 Democrats currently lead by 0. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Download the data. 7. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Download the data. Moore Information. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Krishna Rao, president of the Rice Exporters Association,. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. 8, 2016 44. Trump +46. Generic ballot. Download. West Siena Biden 37, Trump 28, Kennedy 18, West 5 Biden +9 Michigan: Trump vs. Most recent cycle. As a result of Census apportionment, some states have a different number of electoral votes in 2024. 4 This is the manifestation of one of the. By Ashley. Ahead of the U. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. 1 Sept. Republicans (R) +2. From 2010 to 2022, an average of 161 statewide ballot measures—53 initiated measures and 108 referred measures—appeared on ballots in even-numbered years. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Six pollsters 1 have released generic ballot polls both before and after the Dobbs decision. Instead, follow along on our Election Day Live blog as we track results in real-time. Kennedy Harvard-Harris Trump 44, Biden 36, Kennedy 21 Trump +8 General Election. That’s an 18 percentage. 2. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. Club for Growth Action (super PAC) Club for Growth Action (super PAC) is a partisan sponsor for the Republican Party. , polls that ask people whether they intend to vote for a Democrat or for a Republican for Congress. Sort by date. EDT. How this works: FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy of each polling organization’s polls along with its methodology. Nov. 9. As you can see, the president’s party lost. Download. Republicans (R) July October 2018 April July October 36 38 40. 500 LV. Biden has 46 percent or 50 percent of the vote could be the difference between a decisive eight-point victory. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Download the data. , Holly Fuong, , Dhrumil Mehta, Mary Radcliffe, Nathaniel Rakich, , Holly Fuong, , Curtis Yee. Between the House (435 races), Senate (35) and gubernatorial races (36), we issued forecasts in a total of 506 elections. November 21, 2023, 3:58 PM. Download the data. According to FiveThirtyEight’s presidential approval tracker, 2 42. 2024 Republican Debates. 3. Ashcroft’s original description of the proposed abortion amendments, which could go on the ballot in 2024 if supporters gather enough voter signatures, would have asked voters whether they want. 2024 Elections Truth-o-Meter True Mostly True Half True. More in 2024 Election. 83%. 2 point swing. 47%. July 15, 2016 Sept. A handful of recent polls asking likely voters in Virginia if they plan to vote for a Democrat or Republican in the upcoming General Assembly election (much like generic ballot surveys for U. Download the data. There are 34 seats up in 2024 - including a special election in Nebraska - of which 23 are held by Democrats or Independents. According to a RealClearPolitics-style** average of generic congressional ballot polls (i. Final Lite version of FiveThirtyEight’s House, Senate and gubernatorial forecasts as of Nov. Why 'Bidenomics' Isn't Working For Biden Sep 12, 2023; 2024. Trends in 2024 Types of ballot measures. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Pappas UNH Pappas 50, Leavitt 49 Pappas +1 New Hampshire 2nd District - Burns vs. Republicans took the lead in the generic congressional ballot on July 6, and by Labor Day weekend they had a clear 5-point lead. YouGov. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. On average, across those 21 election cycles, our generic-ballot polling average on Election Day missed the House popular vote by only 3. True, these sort of. Trump. Download. At the end of a loooooong campaign, here’s where we stand: Joe Biden is. Download the data. /Grinnell College poll conducted Oct. 19, 2020. On Thursday, Democratic Sen. 22 to Nov. April 1, 2023 July 1 Oct. And it's been even more accurate in recent midterms, when. 5. To improve accuracy, the polling average gives more weight to polls: 1. 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination: Trafalgar Group (R) Trump 50, DeSantis 13, Haley 15, Ramaswamy 4, Christie 5, Scott 4, Burgum 3, Hutchinson 0: Trump +35: 2024 Republican Presidential. A week ago, Democrats led Republicans by 0. Of those: The Lite forecast called the winner correctly in 482 of 506. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Specifically, the generic-ballot polling average the previous September overestimates the president’s party’s vote margin by an average of 3. Today, 538 is also happy to release our live-updating average of polls of the national generic congressional ballot, which ask Americans which party they intend to support for Congress in 2024. Listen. 6 national generic ballot after accounting for uncontested seats, most of which were won by Republican candidates this year. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. 5 percent to 42. For instance, if Democrats have gained a net of 5 percentage points on the generic ballot since a certain district was polled, the model will adjust the poll upward toward the Democratic candidate. 5, 2024, when they must finalize their primary ballot. But as of this week, after tying. And 2022, as a midterm year, has more in common with 2018 than 2020. Nov. 2% Republican 45. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. The House polls are consistent with the generic ballot results. Download. Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email. Emerson. 0 percent to 42. 43. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. RENO, Nev. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. On Wednesday morning, another generic. Evergreen Principles (super PAC) Evergreen Principles (super PAC) is a partisan sponsor for the Republican Party. Wednesday’s poll also showed Democrats leading generic down-ballot races 47% to 42% with Trump at the top of the. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. 46%. 0. Democracy Corps is a partisan sponsor for the Democratic Party. A Look At The Generic Ballot. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. 3. Download the data. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. 13-17 found that 40 percent of likely 2024 voters would. The average showed generic Democrats with an average of 44. Download. 0. As recently as the 1970s, a voter’s preferences were only loosely moored to partisanship. Democrats (D) April July October 2014 April July October 38. 6 points. Download. In November 2023, we made. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. 2020 Generic Congressional Vote. 21, 2023 leader Trump Trump 60. In that election, the GOP flipped control of the House with a. In October 2014, the generic ballot stood here: Fox: D 45%, R 43% (D+2) CNN: D 49%, R 43% (D+6) (NPR’s last poll of registered voters. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. degree. 8 Nov. Create a specific match-up by clicking the party and/or names near the electoral vote counter. On Election Day the red wave crashed ashore, with the GOP recording. The average methodology is summarized below the table. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Over that time, the generic-ballot polling average has missed the national House popular vote margin by an average of only 4. John Anthony Castro, a longshot Republican 2024 presidential candidate, filed a complaint in a New Hampshire court arguing that Trump should be banned from the state's primary ballot while arguing. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. RCP Average. RCP Poll Average. Andy Beshear won reelection in Kentucky. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. University of Massachusetts Department of Political Science, WCVB-TV (Boston) Trump. Ohio voted to enshrine abortion rights in its state constitution. Download. (Some of the “national vote” numbers in this table differ slightly from those in 538 ’s record, but the current numbers are all verified on Wikipedia’s website. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Aug. SIOUX CITY, Iowa -- The wife of a northwestern Iowa county supervisor was convicted Tuesday of a scheme to stuff the ballot box in her husband’s unsuccessful race for. The average.